A key challenge in probabilistic regression is ensuring that predictive distributions accurately reflect true empirical uncertainty. Minimizing overall prediction error often encourages models to prioritize informativeness over calibration, producing narrow but overconfident predictions. However, in safety-critical settings, trustworthy uncertainty estimates are often more valuable than narrow intervals. Realizing the problem, several recent works have focused on post-hoc corrections; however, existing methods either rely on weak notions of calibration (such as PIT uniformity) or impose restrictive parametric assumptions on the nature of the error. To address these limitations, we propose a novel nonparametric re-calibration algorithm based on conditional kernel mean embeddings, capable of correcting calibration error without restrictive modeling assumptions. For efficient inference with real-valued targets, we introduce a novel characteristic kernel over distributions that can be evaluated in $\mathcal{O}(n \log n)$ time for empirical distributions of size $n$. We demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms prior re-calibration approaches across a diverse set of regression benchmarks and model classes.

A key quantity of interest is the mutual information and generalizations thereof, including conditional mutual information, multivariate mutual information, total correlation and directed information.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) environments can produce training data with spurious correlations between features due to the amount of training data or its limited feature coverage. This can lead to RL agents encoding these misleading correlations in their latent representation, preventing the agent from generalising if the correlation changes within the environment or when deployed in the real world. Disentangled representations can improve robustness, but existing disentanglement techniques that minimise mutual information between features require independent features, thus they cannot disentangle correlated features. We propose an auxiliary task for RL algorithms that learns a disentangled representation of high-dimensional observations with correlated features by minimising the conditional mutual information between features in the representation. We demonstrate experimentally, using continuous control tasks, that our approach improves generalisation under correlation shifts, as well as improving the training performance of RL algorithms in the presence of correlated features.

The information-theoretic framework of Russo and Zou (2016) and Xu and Raginsky (2017) provides bounds on the generalization error of a learning algorithm in terms of the mutual information between the algorithm's output and the training sample. In this work, we study the proposal, by Steinke and Zakynthinou (2020), to reason about the generalization error of a learning algorithm by introducing a super sample that contains the training sample as a random subset and computing mutual information conditional on the super sample. We first show that these new bounds based on the conditional mutual information are tighter than those based on the unconditional mutual information. We then introduce yet tighter bounds, building on the individual sample idea of Bu et al. (2019) and the data dependent ideas of Negrea et al. (2019), using disintegrated mutual information. Finally, we apply these bounds to the study of Langevin dynamics algorithm, showing that conditioning on the super sample allows us to exploit information in the optimization trajectory to obtain tighter bounds based on hypothesis tests.

This study introduces a novel feature selection approach CMICOT, which is a further evolution of filter methods with sequential forward selection (SFS) whose scoring functions are based on conditional mutual information (MI). We state and study a novel saddle point (max-min) optimization problem to build a scoring function that is able to identify joint interactions between several features. This method fills the gap of MI-based SFS techniques with high-order dependencies. In this high-dimensional case, the estimation of MI has prohibitively high sample complexity. We mitigate this cost using a greedy approximation and binary representatives what makes our technique able to be effectively used. The superiority of our approach is demonstrated by comparison with recently proposed interaction-aware filters and several interaction-agnostic state-of-the-art ones on ten publicly available benchmark datasets.

Markov random fields are a popular model for high-dimensional probability distributions. Over the years, many mathematical, statistical and algorithmic problems on them have been studied. Until recently, the only known algorithms for provably learning them relied on exhaustive search, correlation decay or various incoherence assumptions. Bresler [4] gave an algorithm for learning general Ising models on bounded degree graphs. His approach was based on a structural result about mutual information in Ising models. Here we take a more conceptual approach to proving lower bounds on the mutual information.

A key quantity of interest is the mutual information and generalizations thereof, including conditional mutual information, multivariate mutual information, total correlation and directed information.

Multimodal sarcasm detection is a complex task that requires distinguishing subtle complementary signals across modalities while filtering out irrelevant information. Many advanced methods rely on learning shortcuts from datasets rather than extracting intended sarcasm-related features. However, our experiments show that shortcut learning impairs the model's generalization in real-world scenarios. Furthermore, we reveal the weaknesses of current modality fusion strategies for multimodal sarcasm detection through systematic experiments, highlighting the necessity of focusing on effective modality fusion for complex emotion recognition. To address these challenges, we construct MUStARD++$^{R}$ by removing shortcut signals from MUStARD++. Then, a Multimodal Conditional Information Bottleneck (MCIB) model is introduced to enable efficient multimodal fusion for sarcasm detection. Experimental results show that the MCIB achieves the best performance without relying on shortcut learning.